When we add the shadow/gray market banking risks into this equation and begin to understand the complexity of commodity-backed or Purchase Order backed financing that has become commonplace throughout the planet, we have to ask ourselves one question – “what would it take for these risks to become another crisis?”
DEUTSCHE BANK MASSIVE EXPOSURE COULD CRIPPLE EUROPE
A recent article we found on ZeroHedge highlights the risk exposure from Deutsche Bank and how that derivatives/banking risk could spill over into another global financial market crisis again.
The ZeroHedge article stated that Deutsche Bank has $49 trillion dollars in derivatives exposure, making it the single greatest danger to Europe and global financial institutions imaginable at this time.
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK DATA IS A WARNING SIGN
Ok, now take a look at these graphs from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis to see the data that is currently being reported.
Net US Acquisitions of non-derivatives assets have been relatively tame over the past 6+ years. We can see from this chart the continued acquisition of assets from 2002 through 2007-08 – just before the credit crisis event. Then, we can see how dramatically the assets were dumped between 2007 and 2009. We’re not seeing that type of setup or event play out currently in the US.
This next chart highlights the US financial derivatives net position and we can see the peak in 2008-09 and the dramatic deleveraging that has taken place over the past 8+ years. This chart shows the US financial derivatives levels are less than 25% of the levels from the start of 2008. ($31B vs $125B).
This last chart highlights the fact that US investors and institutions have been deleveraging from derivatives recently – as shown by the net negative transactions data on this chart. This suggests that investors are worried about the future and have been attempting to remove risk from their investments since the peak in early 2018. Notice similar net transaction declines in 2014-15 and 2009-10.
We believe the dips in these assets are related to US Quantitative Easing actions and investor concerns regarding the elimination of easy money policies. We will take a look at when and how these correlations to risk aversion and QE actually take place in Part II.
In the second part of this article, we’ll explore how the US economy, US Fed and global banking sector could be complicating this derivative risk exposure and how traders need to prepare for this event – if it takes place as we suspect.
In short, you should be starting to get a feel of where stocks are headed along with precious metals for the next 8-24 months. The next step is knowing when and what to buy and sell as these turning points take place, and this is the hard part. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter.
This bear market has been a long time coming, but finally, almost all the signs are showing that it’s about to start. As a technical analyst since 1997 having lost a fortune and made fortunes from bull and bear markets I have a good understanding of how to best attack the market during its various stages.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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