March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are taking a hit early Tuesday as investors return to work after the long U.S. holiday weekend. The tech-heavy index is down nearly 2%, putting it in a position to add to its nearly 4.5% year-to-date loss.
Having risen for 12 of the past 13 years, it is under heavy pressure from the prospect of higher interest rates and bond yields, more so than the broader S&P 500 Index or MSCI’s global equity benchmark.
The 4.5% loss masks deeper falls – 29 shares have lost 10% or more already this year, according to Capital Economics.
Nasdaq futures positioning has shifted dramatically short, Citi analysts point out, noting that $2 billion worth of remaining long positions are deep in the red.
Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis
The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 15152.50 will reaffirm the downtrend. A move through 16009.25 will change the main trend to up.
The minor trend is also down. A trade through 15653.25 will change the minor trend to up. This will also shift momentum to the upside.
The main range is 14366.75 to 16768.00. The index is currently testing the lower end of its retracement zone at 15567.50 to 15284.00.
The short-term range is 16659.50 to 15152.50. Its retracement zone at 15906.00 to 16084.00 is resistance. This area stopped the rally at 16009.25 on January 12.
Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast
The direction of the March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index on Tuesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 15284.00.
A sustained move under 15284.00 will indicate the presence of sellers. This could trigger a quick break into the main bottom at 15152.50. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with the next major targets 14587.25 and 14366.75.
Holding 15284.00 will indicate that buyers are trying to defend against a steep decline. If this triggers an intraday short-covering rally then look for a possible surge into 15567.50.
Overcoming 15567.50 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. We could see an acceleration to the upside over 15653.25 with 15906.00 the next likely target.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire