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American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL)

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22,40+0,96 (+4,48%)
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  • T
    TimT
    $AAL conversation
    I was out and now back to my work desk. But, I have been following the $AAL price. I know it's late to mention this now but I posted something yesterday which is apparently censored by Y!F. What I said in that post was "if you see a 4% gain in the early trading hours on Monday, do not be overly excited. If the share price close below the opening price near Friday's closing price, be cautious. Tuesday will tell what direction the price will move. If the price close lower like over a dollar on Tuesday, then this may be very well the sign of a temporary downtrend." That is why in my previous comment posted yesterday, you will read "Tuesday is very crucial for $AAL."
  • L
    Lex
    ATTENTION passengers, this is your Captain speaking. Thank you for choosing $AAL. In a few days we will be taking flight to $33 per share. Buckle up.
  • V
    VirginiaLova
    $BA conversation
    UNITED $UAL is now preparing for a recovery with vaccine distribution picking up.

    “And as the end of the pandemic nears and vaccines continue to roll out, today’s fleet announcement helps position us to meet the demand we expect to see in 2022 and 2023 and puts us on a path toward more opportunities for our employees in the future,” wrote Nocella.

    Boeing and United’s shares were each up close to 4% in morning trading during a broad market rally.

    $LUV $AAL $CCL $GE
  • M
    MrPocket
    Vibrant movements only means one thing on the Wall Street... BOOM BOOM TO THE MOON...
    Hold Long, Hold Strong, Billy Bong Bong....
    Load up the cargo to maximum investment...
    Triple digits before 2022....
    The TravelWar has begun... All camp grounds are booked...
    Buy the Airlines!!!!

    #AAL #UAL #BA #LUV #JBLU #DAL #MESA #ALK #SKYW #HA #^DJI #^IXIC #GOLD #TSLA #AAPL #GME #MSFT #FB #AMZN
  • T
    TimT
    $AAL conversation
    $AAL - BE CAUTIOUS In the coming days and Don't Let The Fat Man Eat Your Food!

    AAL's institutional put-to-call ratio is around 2.36 as of 2/24. However the call-to-put ratio is 2.6 for 2/26 and 2.1 for 3/5.

    While conformists believe a higher call-to-put ratio indicates a bullish sentiment, contrarians think it is an indication for a bearish sentiment. In contrast, conformists think a higher put-to-call ratio is an indication for a bearish sentiment, contrarians think it is a bullish sentiment.

    As you see institutional investors appear to be bullish on AAL. Those puts are for protective hedging. However one can not say the same for the upcoming weekly options unless one starts tracking them ahead of time. It may be a lot of work but always keep an eye on open interest(OI) and fluctuation of volume and OI if you want to know the recent developments in the options market.

    Friday hasn't quite been generous to AAL long position holders. I've been leaning towards a bearish Friday however the share price rose on the last two Fridays compare to the previous trading day. It was neutral on one week, and down in four weeks since the start of 2021. The trend has been positive lately. So $AAL may close the week on a positive note.

    I am still long in AAL. I was forced to liquidate all the shares I was assigned through options in the last two weeks for a sale price of just over $18 last week, and then $20.65 this week due increased margin requirements which I wasn't aware of at the time I bought the calls. With them, I would have increased my previous position by 150%. Meanwhile, I've moved the expiration dates two weeks closer, 3/05 and 3/12, on the covered calls 3/21 and 3/26 while I've also increased the strike prices for them. I want to keep those shares since I bought them at low $12s and I'd like to avoid paying higher capital gain tax. No offense to any bullish traders here but I'd like to see a 6% to 8% drop in share price before the expiration of the options.

    I prefer short term short puts, and covered calls over long calls. AAL long puts makes me nervous and I have not enough $$$$ for them.

    **ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN DUE DILIGENCE**
  • T
    TimT
    $AAL conversation
    -I haven't checked the margin requirements lately since I receive automated e-mail from my brokerage firms anytime there is change in margin requirements. Today, I was browsing their website and I noticed the long position margin requirement for $AAL was raised to 75% while the short position margin requirement was increased to 200%. They have been always around 30-35% and occasionally 40%.

    -Moreover, borrowing cost for short position was 42% last week, which dropped to 36%. The last part doesn't make sense but whatever....(it should've been the other way around).

    -Also, supposedly, short shares availability increased from 2.5M previously to 5.1M this week. I don't really know what that means. I am pretty sure more AAL shares are available for shorting particularly when the short interest stands around 15%.

    -When the volume and share price move in the same direction (down in this case) and stays around there for a certain period of time, from where I stand and observe things, I would say possibly some short covering is happening. So, yeah, that may explain the increase in the availability of short shares in the last week.

    -However, I think it's been rather challenging for the short-sellers to further short this stock in consideration of the information I have shared above. If there is no mishap in the market in the coming days, it will be really a costly attempt to push the stock price down. Having 100M of shares being shorted currently @ 40% fee means the shorts need to cough up 2.05M daily, $14.38M weekly, $62.45M monthly.

    Loosely speaking, If we look at the fluctuations in short interest, it really moves within 10% range in a month, and maybe 5-8% bi-weekly. Sometimes, there is hardly any change in short interest. Let’s assume and say that there happens a 10% reduction in short interest bi-weekly, the shorts need to force the stock price down by 15% minimum to brake-even, if they succeed it in a month, you need to double the percentage. At $17.80, I am thinking the stock price need to be under $15 and if it is a month, that's way below that. That is why we have daily price fluctuations and intraday surprises-big ups and downs (day's high - day's low). I don't care how smart the higher frequency AI machines I am trading against. It is in a disadvantage position against a Reddit army.

    The question is, can they be mobilized if they knew this? If 8 million Reddit army were to buy 20 shares tomorrow, all you have to ask is "how high can $AAL price jump?" Will short-sellers be shorting another $3B to $5B worth of AAL shares?
    Let’s just hope market stays positive until we gain some more.
  • T
    TimT
    $AAL conversation
    XAL, JETS, and DJT are down and airlines with stronger balance sheets are doing worse than $AAL. So you know that suggests the AAL is trading based on sentiment speculation.
  • T
    TimT
    $AAL conversation
    In my previous post, I called for caution for specific reasons I have discussed. Today's TSA number is very encouraging but I still think we will have a better opinion by weekend if there is any negative sentiment building in air-traveling. I learned when I was a kid that winter is not over until March is over. So maybe we should not expect high growth in WoW in another month or so.

    I have mentioned that I had bought weekly and bi-weekly calls deep ITM a couple of weeks ago. Unfortunately, I had to let go the stocks I was assigned at the start of the last week before the weekend due to my brokerage firm doubled the margin levels for long positions and also I was going to be assigned some more shares over the weekend. I have sold them as well for an average price of $20.65 this morning. In other words, I was supposed to increase my long position by 150%. Now I am back to my earlier position. This is also because of what I have said in my earlier post yesterday.

    Well, now, I hope to have available capital and I will write some OTM bi-weekly puts but not too far OTM. I can risk the recent gains from the calls. As of today, I am up about 53% on $AAL for the year, 2021. I will wait to see if the share price drops to $20 or below and write puts $19.
  • R
    Rafik
    Charlie Munger comment on Bitcoin reminded me Buffet comment for $AAL when it was $9 he said I don’t think airlines will survive after COVID-19 and he sold his $AAL shares, look where is it today up more then 120%. Old school is over
  • S
    Stock
    $AAL conversation
    Kudos to $AAL for allowing $OPTI employees to utilize the Rapid Test product recently during travel. Dr. Drew complimented the $AAL team as well. The patent also for the UV-C that either $AAPL or Samsung is in talks with through $OPTI will change the world for the better. Big shout out to which ever one of them had to courage to move forward with the UV-C patent technology in cell phones and tablets. Big money and safety for all.
  • C
    Cindy Loo
    $OPTI conversation
    Ice Cream Cone now on Reddit even more for $OPTI

    $MSFT $APPL or Samsung have crawled to $OPTI for the patents. They had no choice and they want to announce before the competition.

    $AAL called $OPTI last night to partner on the Rapid Test for Covid.

    Ice Cream Cones get your Ice Cream Cones ... REDDIT RULES!!!!
  • T
    TimT
    $AAL conversation
    This is based on a very limited research and I need more time to make better informed decision. It appears to me the growth in airline traveling has begun showing signs of slowing down greatly recently. I am not sure how much of it is contributed by the weather conditions. It doesn't look like there are cancelations or delaying in a significant level particularly for American Airlines.

    So trade cautiously! If the market sentiment and sector trend are positive, I don't mind having bullish outlook for a little longer. However, I will not add any longer to my AAL long position. Instead, I will start averaging down my cost per share first; then, I will only add a little at a time if intraday trading activities provide gains. I just think that the number of issues that impels me to be more cautious is slowly growing lately. I still think the momentum for $AAL is positive but if the growth in air-traveling stays stagnant, the likelihood of a retracement in AAL's share price becomes a possibility.

    Remember I said I was concerned on lowered VIX and peaked XAL and JETS last week. There is also the greatly reduced short interest level, 73.97M(-43.17%) in January. During the month of January, the stock price has gained 8.88% net or (31%, the month's high- the month's low). The lowest share price was $15.04 and the highest share price was $21.77. When I compare the share price gains to change in short interest, the outcome is just the opposite of the previous months, October through January.

    The lowered VIX is understandable. However, if meteorological factors cause disruptions in air-traveling in the coming days, I would say the stage is set for a retracement. This doesn't mean the stock price may not exceed $20 or even $22 in the coming days or weeks. As of Friday, the positive sentiment endured about $AAL.

    Generally, prior to a major shorting activities, the stock price moves up big like 8% or so in the early morning session, and then shorting starts immediately. If we are entering into that phase, it may last a month at the least, which may take the share price all the way under $15. If we first reach $20-22 range, a 40% drop becomes significant. Again, I will act cautiously this week in my daily trading activities. I don't want to create panic, or blur your thinking. I am just saying have a strategy and be ready if it happens.
  • T
    TimT
    $AAL conversation
    #TBT

    TimT2 days ago

    "I have mentioned that I had bought weekly and bi-weekly calls deep ITM a couple of weeks ago. Unfortunately,.......I have sold them as well for an average price of $20.65 this morning. In other words, I was supposed to increase my long position by 150%. Now I am back to my earlier position. This is also because of what I have said in my earlier post yesterday.

    Well, now, I hope to have available capital and I will write some OTM bi-weekly puts but not too far OTM. I can risk the recent gains from the calls. As of today, I am up about 53% on $AAL for the year, 2021. I will wait to see if the share price drops to $20 or below and write puts $19."
    ------------------

    I didn't really expect it to drop so much and regain all the loss on the same day but hey, this was a really nice surprise to me. I anticipate a pull back in AAL share price soon again regardless of what happened yesterday was just a curveball. But, you see how fast the share price went down from $21 to $18.74!

    I am just gonna get in and out of trades nowadays. I won't add any new shares to my long position which I have covered calls on them. I won't have any position in AAL unless the stock price drops below $20 or even $19 within 3-4 weeks. Let's see where the share price is gonna be until then.

    Things to remember:
    1) The 2020 taxes need to be filed in 6 weeks.
    2) Any positive change in yields presents alternative investment opportunities to manage risks.
    3) The trading trend has shown there happens a pull back once in every month at least. In other words, the traders will always have a better entry point that the present time.

    I think the market is going to pull back soon including the airline stocks in spite of the fact the airline index is probably doing better than all or most indexes. It has a gain of 25% for the year and 89% in the last six months however it is still in a loss territory, -3.5% as of yesterday, since the beginning of 2020. Maybe, the hedge funds will move the airline stocks up some more and then start selling shares once they are in the positive territory.

    I will wait low $18s to consider opening a long position assuming all my shares will be called away by the third week of March. I prefer short term short puts over calls. Meanwhile, I will do day trading.
  • L
    LD
    $AAL conversation
    I think this is setting up for another short squeeze tomorrow, just like the one driven by Reddit 3 weeks ago, only this one will be more devastating to the shorts. I just get that gut feeling reading little bits on different boards and looking at the headlines trying to steer/scare people away from participating in it. The say, hold your $AAL stock and you will do very well, very soon! 😊
  • M
    MrPocket
    People in the media are saying people would sacrifice their marriage to go on vacation...

    Follow the Demands...

    Airlines is the backbone to the traveling industry...

    The TravelWar has begun...

    Buy the Airlines!!!

    Follow me and you shall receive....

    #AAL #UAL #BA #LUV #JBLU #DAL #MESA #ALK #SKYW #HA #^DJI #^IXIC #GOLD #TSLA #AAPL #GME #MSFT #FB #AMZN
  • s
    swing
    $AAL conversation
    $AAL will touch $25 as air travel picking up...
  • M
    MrPocket
    Stimulus package is about to pass!!!

    Vaccines by J&J is a big winner...

    Surge in Spring Break getaways...

    A ton of pilots haves been called back to duties...

    TravelWar is among us...

    BUY THE AIRLINES!!’

    #AAL #UAL #BA #LUV #JBLU #DAL #MESA #ALK #SKYW #HA #^DJI #^IXIC #GOLD #TSLA #AAPL #GME #MSFT #FB #AMZN
  • R
    REC
    $JETS conversation
    The U.S. government wants to hire 6,000 new airport security screeners by the summer as progress in vaccinating people for Covid-19 is projected to lead to an increase in travel.

    $JETS $AC.TO $AAL $UAL $LUV $JBLU $DAL $ALK $SKYW $HA $CJT.TO $ALGT $TXT $GD $RYAAY $WIZZ.L $0753.HK
  • R
    REC
    $JETS conversation
    Airline Bookings Surge, Buoyed by U.K. Plans to Reopen Travel. Source: Bloomberg.

    $JETS $ACDVF $AAL $UAL $LUV $JBLU $DAL $ALK $SKYW $HA $CJT.TO $ALGT $TXT $GD $RYAAY $WIZZ.L $0753.HK
  • M
    MrPocket
    It’s all up hill from here to December... Fast recovery is the name of the game... Airlines are the most essential industry in the entire world... Airlines are the backbone of the entertainment industry... Airlines are ten times cleaner than your car... Traffic gridlock will be a nightmare... Virus is being contained... Testing availability is everywhere... People are demanding to get out and travel... The TravelWar is amongst us..........

    BUY THE AIRLINES!!!

    #AAL #UAL #BA #LUV #JBLU #DAL #MESA #ALK #SKYW #HA #^DJI #^IXIC #GOLD #TSLA #AAPL #GME #MSFT #FB #AMZN