Incyte Corporation (INCY)

Loncar:

$INCY had first in human data from an oral PD-1 at #SITC21. Unfortunately they saw some peripheral neuropathy as a TEAE though. h/t Mara Goldstein

Anyone remember back when $CRIS was the oral PD-1 company?

from Andrew Dunn:
Top takeout targets, per new Credit Suisse investor survey:
1. $CLVS
2. $SRPT
3. $ALDR
4. $INCY
5. $BMRN
6. $GLPG
7. $ALXN
8. $IMMU
9. $ICPT
10. $VKTX

BLAIR: #AACR21 $INCY $AGEN $MRTX $ITOS Abstract Highlights and Meeting Itinerary
On Saturday, April 10, through Thursday, April 15, the American Association of Cancer
Research (AACR) will host the first of two week-long virtual conferences, with the second to
be hosted on Monday, May 17, through Friday, May 21. Full regular abstracts were posted to
the AACR meeting website on March 10 with clinical trial and late-breaking abstracts to be
released at the start of the conference, and in this note we highlight several important data
presentations for our coverage list and other data of interest. In addition, an itinerary of all
relevant presentations to our coverage list and the wider oncology landscape is appended at
the end of this note.
In particular, we highlight:
• Incyte (INCY $83.18; Outperform) will be providing the first clinical update with the
company’s A2A/A2B receptor inhibitor and hosting a conference call with investors
(on Monday, April 12) to discuss the company’s broader adenosine targeting strategy,
including a CD73 antibody. The adenosine pathway has garnered significant industry
interest, and therapies targeting this pathway have led to monotherapy responses,
although clear clinical development paths have yet to be established, in our opinion.
• The next data point for TIGIT antibodies will come from iTeos (ITOS $34.54), which will
present preliminary Phase I data with EOS884448 as a monotherapy. Recent management
commentary suggests pharmacodynamic effects of EOS884448 will be focused on the
periphery for the AACR presentation, with biopsy analysis coming later in the year. Recall
other TIGIT antibodies have shown minimal activity as a monotherapy, with the most
apparent benefit coming when combined with PD-(L)1 antibodies in PD-L1–positive
patients. The company will also host an investor call on Monday, April 12.
• Agenus (AGEN $2.89; Outperform) will provide an update from the ongoing trial
evaluating the combination of AGEN1181, a next-generation CTLA-4 antibody with
Fc enhancements, and balstilimab, the company’s PD-1 antibody. As of February, the
company reported a 23% response rate (5/22 patients), achieving responses in tumors
unlikely to respond to PD-(L)1 antibody monotherapy, including microsatellite stable
colorectal and endometrial cancers. We will host a call with Agenus management on
Saturday, April 10, to discuss the updated results (see page 5 for registration link).
• Although mainly preclinical in nature, several companies will provide updates on KRAS
G12C inhibitors, attempting to improve on the results presented to date by Amgen
(AMGN $249.10; Market Perform) and Mirati (MRTX $173.91). In particular, the abstracts
focus on proposed combination regimens, with preclinical efficacy reported for several
combinations targeting the MAPK pathway.

Agenus
Agenus will present updated clinical data with the company’s novel Fc-enhanced CTLA-4 antibody, AGEN1181, for which the
company has previously disclosed multiple confirmed responses as monotherapy and in combination with the PD1 antibody
balstilimab. As of the most recent update, the combination of AGEN1181 and balstilimab resulted in a 23% response rate
(5/22) across a variety of tumor types, including many that would not be expected to respond to PD-(L)1 monotherapy, such
as microsatellite stable (MSS) colorectal cancer (CRC) and MSS endometrial cancer. These particularly tough-to-treat cancer
types do not respond to PD-(L)1 monotherapy, making the initial data for AGEN1181 combination more impressive. Two MSS
endometrial cancer patients have achieved responses, one on monotherapy AGEN1181 and a second on the combination with
balstilimab. In addition, a confirmed partial response in an MSS CRC patient treated with the combination was also announced
in February of this year. We continue to be encouraged by the safety profile of the drug and initial biomarker and efficacy data,
and look forward to additional updates at the upcoming AACR meeting

SunTrust just released a note stating that a series of strong data catalysts&disruptive medicines being commercialized or entering the clinic they recommend investors being overweight biotech. Their recommendations are:

$CRSP $BMRN $CBAY
$EDIT $EXEL $INCY
$MRTX
$RARE $SAGE $SRPT $VKTX $WVE

Our time is coming - just be patient.

Garo Armen Retweeted

Jennifer Buell


@jbuell01
2h2 hours ago
More Jennifer Buell Retweeted Agenus Inc. ($AGEN)
.@FierceBiotech your @9:45AM report by Nick Paul Taylor is wrong. Correct deal terms below: $AGEN retains 67% of royalties & 90% milestones. Call with questions.Jennifer Buell added,
Agenus Inc. ($AGEN)

@Agenus_Bio
Received $15 M from $XOMA for minority royalty interest in $INCY, $MRK partnerships. $AGEN retain 67% of royalties and 90% of milestone payments; Remain eligible for up to an additional $450 M and $85.5 M in milestones from @Incyte and @Merck, respectively
…
1 reply 6 retweets 6 likes
Reply 1 Retweet 6 Like 6

Garo Armen


@garo_armen
3h3 hours ago
More
There will also be unscrupulous characters who intentionally say wrong or do wrong regardless of the facts.

0 replies 1 retweet 4 likes
Reply Retweet 1 Like 4

Garo Armen


@garo_armen
5h5 hours ago
More
Today’s announcement is the first and the smallest of multiple transactions we expect to conclude this year. Agenus Closes $15 Million Partial Royalty Monetization With XOMA

ORACLE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INC 13F
doubles up on $AGEN shares , top buy in Q
also $AGEN calls
2nd $PACB
3rd $OPK
top $AGEN holders are $INCY and $GILD

Andy Biotech: Except you forget I/O legend $INCY Epacadostat

$NKTR peg-IL2 vs $INCY IDO combo in 1L melanoma
ORR: 53% (20/38) vs 65% (26/40)
ORR in PD-L1+: 64% (14/22) vs 75% (9/12)
ORR in PD-L1-: 39% (5/13) vs 56% (9/16)
12mo PFS: 57% vs 63%

What is is Incyte "Really" worth? Good question. Very different from the "price target" question analysts try to answer because it eliminates investment horizons (never stated, but always there) and questions of catalysts. In a sense, it's a takeover price question, but independent of whether there might be a takeover.

So: what's in hand? Jaka[fv]i, obviously. Please, since I was predicting peak US sales over $2bln while "respectable" people were predicting less than $1bln, allow me to move the peak above $3bln now. With all applications protected for 11 more years, and at least $1 bln going to come under new patents and other forms of extended exclusion of competition. And at least for the largest markets, the only competitor visible on the horizon is Jaka[fv]i, in combinations. Rule of thumb is that that's worth $15 bln in a takeover, but let's put it at $10 bln.

Then there's a quarter of Olumiant. Yeah, the FDA troubles. But anyone can look at the phase 3 data--the drug is too good to stop forever. Again, "respectable" estimates of sales have run around $2 bln. I can't for the life of me see how it takes less than 20% of the severe RA treatment market of about $40 bln. So that's $2bln a year for Incyte WITHOUT the overhead of selling--that makes it as good as Jakafi right there, with other potential uses still to be determined (some of them large). Call it $15 bln total value.

Can't forget epacadostat. Barring an active cod [ancient corny SF joke], substantial use against melanoma is in the bag [see how much fun it is to have no time constraint]. That is a huge market all by itself. In fact, for present purposes I'll leave out the more competitive tumor types, but just guess 50K melanoma patients at $40K. Another $2 bln sales, say $8 bln of company value.

Rather than trying to value deeper pipeline assets, I'll just point to the most efficient candidate-generating operation in the industry. That HAS to be worth at least 2/3 as much as the drugs it has generated. All adds up to $55 bln. Notice that the value rises as hot candidates come to the fore (as long as the pipeline gets replenished), and my skepticism of epac shows compared to any other valuation around (frankly, I consider my optimism about Olumiant VERY cautious)

So I get a value almost exactly twice the present market capitalization. As Morningstar puts it: "The father of value investing, Benjamin Graham, explained this concept by saying that in the short run, the market is like a voting machine--tallying up which firms are popular and unpopular. But in the long run, the market is like a weighing machine--assessing the substance of a company." This value is still a little below what I'm guessing management (and large holders) would want in a friendly deal, so again: no takeover soon.