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Microchip Technology Incorporated (MCHP)
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I took time to analyze all companies in SOX index to select those, which would fit holding during tapering (those, which are not overvalued, profitable and are set to generate good income near-term). Here's my best bets:
$KLAC - my best bet and safe-haven. Unlike some other semiconductor equipment manufacturers ($LRCX, $AMAT, $TXN) this one is on the front of the chip miniaturization and its metrology equipment is used in testing and production of 3nm, 5nm and 7nm nodes. This company's further prospects and financials will be very correlated to $ASML, because smaller nodes require more metrology. But KLAC is currently 2-3 times cheaper than ASML fundamentally. Moreover, even if after EUV lithography there will emerge some alternative production equipment for sub-nm nodes and ASML loses its dominance, KLAC still should feel fine because even more metrology will be needed for smaller nodes regardless of production technology - so safe to hold like 10 years ahead.
$AMKR - company is on the front of the chip shortage and engaged in production of microchips used in devices, wearables, IoT, vehicles etc. The company is extremely cheap fundamentally, even though it has grown 2x since the pandemic begun. Management comment that it will experience cyclical tailwinds at least through whole 2022 and good results has only started to show up in earnings yet. I expect at least 30% upside here yet going forward but it is not a long-term asset.
$MCHP - analog and digital microchip producers, whose products are in high demand right now. Company is again relatively cheap to its peers ($MRVL, $ADI), while management reports 60 weeks lead times on new orders in some categories right now. Everything is essentially booked up 1 year ahead already. Company is about to get a 2:1 stock split too in one week.
$INTC - Intel apparently is cheap fundamentally compared to its peers and overall has been beaten down for several quarters. But near-term some positive developments are about to start working. New family of processors on new chipset and new DDR5 memory is poised to be a success starting selling in November. In January Intel will finally release new videocards, which are planned to be competitive this time to $NVDA and $AMD . Also new CEO's plans to engage into fab business goes well with current chip shortage theme. Time will tell if Intel can return its lost share in processors and videocards but the possibility of it should give the stock momentum anyway.
Great presentations in investor day. $MCHP also was great, but that company is more modeled like value one, with already great margins and slower growth and higher investor capital returns. Also $MCHP has a good momentum in this particular cycle. Bloomberg says need to buy value companies in late cycle, but I don't know anymore - market doesn't seem to embrace that idea at least yet. So both are good in a sense.
p/b = 1.9 I can't find a single semi company with such multiple. Even $TSEM or $MX or $MCHP or $MU are higher. And intel is the market leader in processors and no one predicts that it will lose the leadership. Only $WDC has p/b of 1.4. Intel is now in one range with HDD producer. Buy stocks before hedge funds do - they attack Intel to manipulate the market.
Well I do understand downgrade but I don't agree with it. The thing is that there will be 2 very positive quarters now it is sort of given and then they probably expect things to return to normal + Q1 is not the strongest quarter seasonally overall. So in other words they expect a normal kind of cycle here. But I think it is not a normal kind of cycle - did you hear before about production halts due to semiconductor shortages? While other firms like $MRVL, $MCHP, $ON forecast very strong demand for 2022 I am sure business will be booming here as well, because firms are reluctant to increase their production capacity significantly - not to get into overproduction when things improve - instead they try to outsource production for the time being where possible. Then again next year will have a significant momentum in consumer PCs and servers because of rotation to DDR5 and new processors, mobile also should be strong because of further expansion of 5G, cause many people still haven't rotated to a 5G phone.
Some implied moves for #earnings next week(1of2):
Bonds yields are slightly down most of my stocks are down
$JPM $MU $LEN $MU $MCHP $X $FCX
What the #$%^ is up in this market?
I have opened a position here. While I think $MCHP is a better play for this particular cycle, this company seems to be better positioned long-term and cheaper than ADI + Maxim.
Big 142.55K share profit taker around 3:30p. Still involved with $MCHP, good to roll.
As a previous atml stockholder it's interesting how a competent CEO can make $$$ from Atmel compared to the previous CEO's who ran it to line their own pockets.
I have a gut feeling this is going to the mid $90's within 1 1/2 months, strong feeling. My calls have been spot on lately. Company is putting up robust numbers and expanding growth, can see a potential takeover in this space too as Microchip looks solid!! Trading below intrinsic value and future growth targets by quite a bit. There's an easy $7-10 a share at it's present growth, I anticipate nice new long term contracts coming soon.
don't worry about $TXN slow down. It is exposed to several categories, like analog chips, which already weren't growing. $MCHP $ADI $NXPI.
MCHP set to report great earnings. Watch the stock pop up. I bet they get acquired for over $80as the semiconductor industry goes through even more consolidation.
It might just be $MCHP they are 21 market cap
Guys it's heading to $100 fast!! Not really on many radars but with it's numbers gaining attention fast!
Who thinks Steve Laub raked Atmel shareholders over coal while filling his pokets???
Can someone explain why the chart shows huge volume bars at the bottom, but the volume stat is still so low right now? Thanks
Who thinks Steve Laub was either the most grossly incompetent CEO ever, or worse, a criminal, using Atmel as his piggy bank??
Ever wonder why the company was SOLD, instead of giving responsible leadership a go at it?
There is only ONE answer I can think of.
Hey folks this has become the real deal!!! I see things moving much faster for the Price incline at MCHP. Potential takeover targer inmho, Qaulcom or Texas I ?? I see a nice spike coming as this is a winner with earnings and rev growth.
MCHP raises outlook for FQ1. Also positive for general embedded semiconductor industry as MCHP has good coverage of most semi customers.
Microchip increase guidance for FQ1 2018 - Circulaat
Microchip previously provided guidance on May 9, 2017 for consolidated net sales to be up 2% to 7%, with a midpoint of 4.5%. Microchip now expec...
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