Pinterest, Inc. (PINS)

Ruh-Roh sayeth Scoob ... don't birds of a feather flock together $SNAP $PINS and $TWTR???

"Amid Covid-19-related lockdown orders by various governments around the world, social media stocks such as Pinterest and Snap have enjoyed healthy gains. Pinterest shares have surged nearly 500% in the past year, and Snap has notched a similar advance.

But BofA Securities analyst Justin Post wrote in a client note Monday that there is little upside left in either stock. Post downgraded both Snap (ticker: SNAP) and Pinterest (PINS) to Neutral from a Buy."

Today was a great day for growth tech investors. $PINS, which has been a Top Pick of mine for a while, was no exception. With days like today, we have to keep a longer-term context in perspective. Understand the long-term narrative, and discount back to present value. So here goes...

$PINS is the most unique "social media platform" available from both a user and advertiser perspective. So unique in fact, that I would only use the term social media platform as a loose descriptor. Pinterest is really an eCommerce search engine of sorts. Users use the Pinterest platform as a way of gaining inspiration. Whether it be fashion, home decor, or travel, Pinterest is an inspiration engine. Compared to $FB or $TWTR, where users are left in a generally negative headspace after using the app, $PINS users have a generally more positive experience. Why? Because they're being inspired. It's that simple.

This positivity on the platform correlates to sticky engagement (emphasis on sticky). As you use Pinterest more and more, the platform collects more and more data on your interests, your taste, and other important insights into how you are inspired. Why is this important? It means Pinterest is able to understand a lot about their users, using merely first party/on-platform insights. They aren't really subject to third party targeting (think third party ad cookies) and they won't see much of a headwind from $AAPL's IDFA change (if/when it ever happens). Simply put, $PINS just works for advertisers. We see it in $PINS users' purchasing behavior. Out of all the social media platforms, $PINS has the highest percentage of users who purchase a product after using the platform.

$PINS is monetizing its user base at ~$3/MAU annually (as of 2020). Keep in mind, peer $FB is monetizing at ~$30/MAU annually (again as of 2020). So, you could argue the attack opportunity from monetization alone is 10x. This neglects any further growth in the user base as Pinterest evolves and expands (especially internationally).

Yes, on a short-term basis it's expensive. Yes, there is a lot of execution risk. But take a long-term view. We're at ~$45 billion in market cap, for a fundamental story that could be worth ~$100B+ one day (my view). Right now, 2021YE PT is ~$130/share based on 2030 valuation discounted back to year end value. Will update you all in the future. Long $PINS

Growth tech names like $ZM $TSLA $SNAP $PINS $SFIX $TWLO $NVDA $TWTR etc. selling off for a simple reason. Powell saying that when the economy returns to normal so will inflation. This leads to strong fundamentals growth (booming economy) but rising rate environment. Rising rates hit DCF discount rates on growth stocks (all of the aforementioned names have huge multiples). This means the highest multiple stocks start coming back to reality. I've been rolling back into my highest conviction names. As fundamentals show their strength, the market will likely get over the temporary valuation correction and re-rate growth names higher. I'm not going long value tech ($INTC or $FB or $AAPL), I'm going to stick to what works. Long $PINS and $SNAP more specifically.

First and foremost, I hope ALL are hanging in there. Those that follow me know that for over a week now I've been suggesting that March might be painful. The problem with the stocks we trade like $PINS is that if or when the market pulls back or corrects, it's usually exponential for our stocks. Case in point: we are now down 28% from the recent high. That being said, I haven't sold anything. Should I have? As a trader, the answer is a resounding yes. As a long term forever investor, my answer is NO. In order to mitigate times like these, I hedge my portfolios with inverse funds or Puts. Those SPY Puts I bought yesterday have gained 400%. So while my stock portfolio is down 11% across the board, the hedge I put on has not only wiped out those losses, but has increased the value of the portfolio by 20%. In my opinion, that's huge.
Trade green my friends [_] cheers [_]

I'm hoping I'm wrong and this is just selling out of frustration of the delay in the Stimulus package. $PINS is still a forever stock for me, however, the $70 support is now in play followed by $65.
There are some gaps between $25 and $45. Fingers crossed that those are breakaway gaps that won't be filled.
I'm hedging this portfolio with SPY 383 Puts that I picked up once we broke down thru 384. If the drop in the NASDAQ becomes contagious, this could get nasty. If my SPY Puts reach +50%, I'll take my original $ out and see what happens from there.
Trade green my friends [_] cheers [_]

Hello all. I figured I would lay out why I'm a long-term bull on $PINS and why it is one of my favorite names within the social media advertising universe. First of all let's understand the value propositions for $PINS from both an advertiser and a user perspective:

Starting with the users. Users love $PINS because it's simply a different type of platform. This isn't a platform where the most engagement (likes, comments, etc.) wins (like $TWTR or $FB). It's an inspiration engine of sorts. If you want to get ideas for a vacation, or how to redecorate your house you use $PINS. $PINS is like an inspiration search engine. The more you show $PINS about what you enjoy on the platform, the more they can curate specific content to you. The social aspect is the exchanging of inspiration. This leaves users with a sweet taste in their mouth after using the platform, whereas $FB and $TWTR users tend to be more bitter after using the app (think of the crazy political discourse on those apps). The stats back it up: 47% of $PINS users have an intent to purchase vs. mid to high teens on other platforms. This isn't a social media platform, it's social commerce.

For advertisers: Users have high purchase intent, there is a lot of first party data that $PINS has on platform to better target and curate ads, and it doesn't have the PR backlash of advertising on $TWTR or $FB. Sure, you might not get the third party targeting, and the automated ad platform is still in the early innings, but the long-term value proposition for advertisers is there: 459 million people are looking for inspiration. Give it to them.