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Starbucks Corporation (SBUX)
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Whoooohooooo let’s goooooooo Long $SBUX!!!
There's a post on the Rumor/Murmurs/Buzz page about $SBUX and $CVSI being in talks to run +CBD in all locations upon FB competition. Has anyone seen any corroborating sources?
Drawing parallels between Starbuks performance in China:
"In China comparable store sales declined by 19% for fiscal 2020, mostly due to the 31% and 37% reduction in comparable store sales during the second and third fiscal quarters of 2020, respectively."
While SBUX had 19% decline, Luckin in the same year made 33% increase in sales
China comparable store sales increased 91%
Now, make your own conclusion what kind of explosive increase for 2021 Luckin is going to come up with, if
SBUX revenue in China in Q2 increasd 91%
Holding dearly my 10K of LKNCY
Selling no earlier than 2025
This stock is going to follow patterns of those like:
Starbux, Dunkin Donuts, Domino Pizza, Chippotile
Enjoying my 3 bagger already made and looking forward to multiply 3-5x in the coming 4 years.
Jean Paul Georges
looking at the market cap of both starbucks $SBUX 100B and luckin coffee $LKNCY 3B there’s a lot of room for the latter!
My reasoning for a $54 Stock Price currently for $LKNCY :
$SBUX has 32,660 outlets, LKNCY has 4,792 outlets - 14% of SBUX’s size.
SBUX Market Cap: $132B, LKNCY Market Cap: $2.2B - 1.7% of SBUX’s MC.
So if / when financials show that LKNCY’s Market Cap is actually 14% of SBUX’s MC (approx $18B), the stock price will leap. However, if I just use 10% of SBUX’s MC ($13B) - that gives me a Stock Price of ($13B / $2.2B = 6) $9/share today X 6 = $54
** of course this is a rough factoring. My purpose is to highlight the absurdly undervalued proposition of this stock. Not looking to pump this stock, just sharing my investment outlook.
08-14-2020 @DAVE ... "That is unbelievably amazing... The EXACT same thing has happened in the past as well. Why doesn't the S.E.C. investigate something like that?" ...
Many possible reasons:
1. SEC is in a slumber, but should someone with "heft" or stature bring this to SEC or FinCEN, they might listen.
2. SEC is a well-known "revolving door" of people who used to or would like to in the near future work in a private sector, for a lot more money and bennies, having SEC / gov't service experience and relationships on their resumes. Many at the top and middle layers of SEC currently don't know where they will be in 6 months, so investigating WS financial shenanigans may not be exactly their priorities at this time.
3. Many in the investment industry (some may now be at SEC and later be back "on the Street") have probably dined in one or more Danny Meyer's fine-dining Union Square Hospitality Group (USHG) 20+ NYC restaurants, and would like to do so again when some or all of them reopen; also Meyer is sitting on several boards of companies with potential IPO and some that will certainly need WS help with raising money through loans and/or other financial services that WS lives on (just like recent recap via dilution of $SHAK) and he is also involved in some feel-good non-profits and restaurant / farming community organizations. Maybe that's why they have been so brazen about it, they may feel at best ignored and at worst untouchable.
That's why Meyer's USHG and Shake Shack share the similar marketing theme (easy to search): "Union Square Hospitality Group's BELOVED restaurants, cafes, and bars..." / "Union Square Hospitality Group has created some of New York's most BELOVED restaurants, cafes, bars..." / "USHG is the hospitality company founded by Danny Meyer, and owner of some of New York City's most BELOVED restaurants." / "We love to reimagine BELOVED, classic dishes..." / "The (fill in the city) Shack serves up all the BELOVED Shake Shack classics..." etc. etc. - it's in their 10Ks, 10Qs annual reports and all marketing literature. "Iconic" and "cult" are other monikers they use - that's how you sell inferior products at higher prices to tourists and brand-curious, and that's why they need high-traffic places like malls and terminals, stadiums to attract casual traffic and sustain high AUV - but their retainment rate is low, 75% of first-time visitors never come back, so expenses are high, gross and the net margins are low and the business model at these high valuations is not sustainable over long term.
5. Now, an article about ridiculous valuations and of these WS + SHAK insiders stock shenanigans in highly regarded financial publication(s) or a statement by a well-known short-seller would go a long way to get attention of SEC / FinCEN, but in this environment of The Fed and Fed gov't flooding the market with trillions of dollars to bail out "the market" and "leave no zombie company behind" it's not a sure thing that it will turn into something concrete. After 2007-2008 GFC market crash and unraveling of Madoff's decades-long Ponzi scheme operation a lot of mini-Madoffs were uncovered and busted... I guess we are still some ways from Zombie Companies Apocalypse, staved off by Trillions of dollars, some flowing to companies that should be saved while most going to WS Mafia Laundromats "washing" money through entities like $SHAK and some other zombies, with insiders sharing in the booty.
I and a few others on this board (and some articles in Forbes, SeekingAlpha, etc.) have been documenting for more than a year this financial engineering fraud and the "love story" between WS Mafia and SHAK insiders and there are enough forensic accounting evidence to bring this to logical conclusion - the question is, would anyone blow the whistle loud enough for SEC or FinCEN to wake up and do their jobs? Shake Shack CFO ("Chief Financial Engineering Officer") Tara Comonte was promoted to President in the beginning of this year - ever wondered why? CFO + President is unusual and rare; CEO + Pres, Pres + COO, CEO + COO are much more common. Randy Garutti is completely incompetent as CEO flailing in different directions, trying one failed scheme after another (GrubHub exclusivity, trying to emulate Chipotlane with pretty "Jetsons"-like sketches, "digital ecosystem" etc.), he is just a marketing cheerleader spouting usual slogans "brand," "opportunity for growth" and "I don't care about margins, I just want to sell more burgers - that brings in cash" on ERs, "investor conferences" and CNBC.
Well, we'll find out next week if only 1,666 left open from last $55 LIMIT order have been filled... or maybe they used the opportunity today to also "park" another 25K shares for Danny Meyer, on no-news low-vol day with $SHAK "somehow" being up nearly 3% during the day while $CMG, $MCD, $WEN, $QSR, $SBUX etc. were all down or just barely in the green at the same time?
Momentum has finally swung up. Jumped over the 50 day ma today. Nice run this week going into the holidays. I expect $SBUX stores to be packed with shoppers.
I am really pleased with JVA's progression. I am glad JVA continued bringing in positive net income. It is what mainly matters for a company like JVA, the revenue is a fixable problem. I am also glad JVA is further cutting costs by purchasing the land for JVA's manufacturing facility and consolidating manufacturing operations. The land will also strengthen the company's balance sheet by adding an asset that will grow in value over time. JVA is being run very smartly by the current generation of the family that has always ran it, the company is being ran with care like any other family-operated business (remember $JNJ is a family run company.)
JVA is one of the most reliable stocks in the stock market right now, and I will be putting big profits in it for an easy triple, possibly much more if its CBD coffee beverages take off. Imagine $SBUX or any one of the large coffee chains choosing to offer its CBD coffee in its franchises, JVA will go over $100 over night!
Terrific company, buy any dips in $SBUX !
The stock price isn’t a good representation of in store business, no reason for the down trend especially with earnings... people can’t live without $SBUX !
Splurged for the office today, bought everyone a Filet o Fish with extra tartar sauce, fries and a strawberry custard pie. We sent someone to Starbucks to get coffee but the line for the bathroom was around the block so we got $MCD coffee too. Smooth but strong, I liked it. Won’t go back to $SBUX it’s trying to be a sanctuary city.
Bitcoin is going to be 75k soon. Everyone is asking about Bitcoin. BKKT's initial partners were Starbucks $SBUX and Choice Hotels $CHH. Of course it wasn't going to work well during Covid. Mastercard and Fiserv partnership is huge. Just wait until a Mastercard is announced with BKKT. We are looking at $100.
Question $SBUX vs $BROS which is better
LK has blown past $SBUX in-store count for China.
Seems logical to me. Flight to quality $SBUX down and $GE is up.
Apple crushed it. Google beat earnings so did Starbucks $APPL $GOOGL $SBUX
I did my D.D. (similar to what I did with NIO around $3) and ended up buying 1,000 shares today under $5.00 and I have to say I'm looking forward to buying more. I think Luckin' has great potential, their tea products are set to be huge profit puppies, but 'introducing' China to coffee is going to be huge, super cheap costs, lots of stores, and a ginormous market! That final point I cannot stress enough.
I'll be loading every red day until I have a couple thousand shares. I'm most interested to see what their new audited financials show, I know some people are weary, but this company reminds me of $SBUX back in '08, after it got beat down on worries about profitability following restructuring and expansion. Post the 75% drop in SP $SBUX jumped 2000% to present day. It's good to see the board being restructured and it gives me hope we'll see LK back on the NASDAQ some day.
Right now I'm thinking there's a similar consolidation period of massive institutions looking into and buying LKNCY, very similar to NIO after it got hammered down thanks to bankruptcy worries. Barclays & BlackRock both own ~1,000,000 shares, and I expect more major institutions to buy in shortly following some major red days. This is a long hold IMO, and I'm super excited to see the mid and long term growth prospects of the company.
All M.O., hope this helped nudge some people in the bullish direction!
With Apple down more than five percent after earnings, expect the volatile selloff to resume on Friday. Good luck to all and be disciplined when entering and exiting positions.
$^dji $^gspc $^ixic $qqq $amzn $fb $pins $snap $nflx $intc $sbux $msft $f $c $cvs $ibm $amd
$MCD coffee and service better than $SBUX and comparable to $DNKN
biggest coffees company in the world $sbux and $lkncy
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