EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Continues to Rally
EUR/USD Forecast Video for 09.05.23
Euro vs US Dollar Technical Analysis
The euro has rallied slightly during the trading session on Monday as we continue to see upward pressure overall. That being said, the market is very likely to see a significant amount of resistance above, especially near the 1.11 level where the market has struggled recently. We have been consolidating with more of an upward bias and I think that probably continues to be the case in general. If we do break above the 1.11 level, that is possible the market could go look into the 1.12 level above, which is an area where we have seen a certain amount of noise.
On the downside, the 50-Day EMA sits near the 1.09 level, and is trying to reach to the upside. The 50-Day EMA is quite often a dynamic support level, so it is worth paying close attention to that if we get anywhere near that indicator. Ultimately, this remains more or less a “buy on the dips” type of market, although it is somewhat stuck in consolidation. That being said, the market is likely to be very noisy because even though the ECB remains very hawkish, there are a lot of concerns in Europe and some murmurs of European banks being in the same situation as US regional banks are in.
If we were to turn around to break down below the 50-Day EMA, then it’s possible that we could go down to the 1.07 level, which is basically where the 200-Day EMA will meet up with price on a selloff. That being said, it will probably continue to find buyers one way or another, as traders are already trying to price in 150 bases points of rate cuts in the United States by the end of the year. It doesn’t necessarily seem likely, but it’s what the markets are pricing in, perhaps as a response to the problems in the US banking sector. Perhaps traders are focusing on the duration risks in the treasury markets that a lot of the regional banks in America are so heavily exposed to. With that being the case, we will continue to see a lot of volatility going forward.
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This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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