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NZD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – Weak US Dollar Helps Shift Kiwi Momentum to Upside

The New Zealand Dollar is moving higher late in the session on Friday as traders shrugged off disappointing domestic manufacturing data with traders choosing instead to focus on the direction of U.S. interest rates. Also lifting the Kiwi was a weaker U.S. Dollar, which fell on profit-taking after a strong rally throughout the week.

At 17:53 GMT, the NZD/USD is trading .6161, up 0.0035 or +0.57%.

In domestic news, the manufacturing sector in New Zealand fell back into contraction territory in June, the latest survey from BusinessNZ revealed on Friday with a Performance of Manufacturing Index score of 48.7.

The number represents a sharp decline from the downwardly revised 52.6 in May (originally 52.9) and it falls beneath the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction for the first time in nine months.

In the U.S., U.S. retail sales rebounded strongly in June as Americans spent more on gasoline and other goods amid soaring inflation, which may have reduced fears of an imminent recession, but did not change the view that economic growth in the second quarter was tepid.

In news that weighed on the U.S. Dollar, Fed funds futures now indicate an 81% chance of a 75 basis points increase and a 19% chance of a 100 basis points increase.

Daily NZD/USD
Daily NZD/USD

Short-Term Outlook

The main trend is down, but the minor trend and momentum are now trending higher.

A trade through .6061 will change the minor trend to down. A move through .6252 will reaffirm the minor trend.

The minor range is .6252 to .6061. The NZD/USD is currently straddling its pivot at .6157.

Trader reaction to .6157 is likely to determine the direction of the NZD/USD into the close on Friday.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .6157 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for a surge into the long-term Fibonacci level at .6232.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .6157 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a late break into a minor pivot at .6119. If this fails then look for a retest of the minor bottom at .6061.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

This article was originally posted on FX Empire

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