Why is Nasdaq continuously going higher? Simple, fears of inflation and the dollar keeps dropping. When the dollar forms a bottom, QQQ will crash without a doubt. Meanwhile, you will have the media stating that “fears of inflation” is the reason why the market is dropping.
Looking at historical p/e’s of s&p and many other big tech stocks, ie $AAPL, $MSFT just as a couple of examples. Who here knows how much these stocks would have to drop in order to reach their historical averages?? Here’s a hint. Apple is expected to have 4.46 EPS this year. Their average surprise beat is around 15-20%. With a 20% yearly beat, Apple would have an EPS of about 5.35. At 16 p/e that would give them a price of about 85$/share (35+% drop). The only big news they announced are that they are joining the EV game. That is all speculation and does not mean that their business in that space will fail or not be profitable, just like their business in the server space. Then looking at $MSFT. Their expected EPS for this year is 7.4. Let’s say they beat earnings in 2021 by 25% each quarter (their biggest beat was by 23% last year), that would give them an EPS of 9.25. At the historical average of 16 p/e, that would represent an share price of about 148$, representing an over 40% decline! And those are the biggest tech stocks, so you can make a guess as to how much further $QQQ has to fall to reach historical averages.
The above, I also based on FORWARD p/e’s. The whole s/p is insanely overvalued and what happened last year and happening this year is going to lead new investor in believing this is the norm. The norm is that p/e and p/s rations WILL matter and there is not enough growth from the biggest names to support the p/e’ and p/s ratios they currently hold.
Then to add to that, you have corporate tax hikes coming and interest rates which will undoubtedly go up as the economy is recovering (best unemployment news since before the pandemic yesterday). The dollar will go back up as the economy recovers and unemployment continues to drop. And if inflation does indeed continue to rise, the rates will certainly offset that.
There isn’t much more upside and plenty of downside! As a retail invested I would sell into the strength and be patiently waiting into another major market pull back.
Investor Danny Moses featured in the Big Short a contrarian who foresaw the housing crash warning once again... $SPY $AAPL "What's really bothering me right now is the Fed's inability to wean off of $120 billion a month in purchases - $80 billion in treasuries and $40 billion in mortgage-backed securities. What are we so afraid of? How dangerous is it right now that you can't even start to even indicate that you're going to stop that? You look at our debt approaching $30 trillion, and we're trying to put together an infrastructure bill that needs funding, and you're going to have higher taxes. Somewhere along the line, we're going to pay the piper for all this stuff we're doing."
"It's scary, because every time we've seen the Fed try to pull back, even indicate anything, we've seen rates move higher, which widens credit spreads, which sends stocks lower, and then there's backtracking. 'No, no, we're kidding. We didn't mean that.'"
I
Can’t remember when Microsoft’s multi-billion dollar AR contract was announced, but it may have been on 3/31/21. Let’s do a comparison of stock prices of $MSFT, $AMZN and $AAPL from the close on 3/30/2021 to 4/9/2021 close:
So, as you can see, despite a terrific positive news, the stock of $MSFT has still performed about the same as its tech peers / competitors.
This is NOT a commentary on Microsoft, which I find to be a solid company growing at a rapid pace, but on its stock price, which NEVER seems to catch up to its fundamentals and future potential. This is why I remain unimpressed with the STOCK.
Usually a Corp. becomes a dividend aristocrat after 25 years of consecutive payments and increases. $AAPL reinstated its dividend in 2012. Still have plenty to go! Buy and hold!
I
Look at the stock price performance of $MSFT in comparison to that of $AMZN and $AAPL from 3/30/2021 (day before the big AR deal that Microsoft won) to today. The other companies have actually performed better than $MSFT. 🤷♂️
NOT an issue with Microsoft (which is a solid company with strong fundamentals), but quite an underwhelming performance of its stock price.
$AAPL sixth consecutive day of gains. Slow but stable. I'll hold at least 10 years.
C
Fakest bs i ever saw. Half my portfolio down 6% today. Its same ole bubble caps propping up indices and looks like market in small and mid caps let alone other names. Looks like tons of sectors being firesold by the fed yes i think the fed and pds held these names- same fed who are now using that money to hide the damage $aapl $msft $amzn $viac very very scary market to see mid caps evwrywhere collapse and people pretending hiding in 40 pe apple or amzn is healthy
HONG KONG (REUTERS) - China’s Xiaomi Corp plans to make electric vehicles (EVs) using Great Wall Motor’s factory, said three people with direct knowledge of the matter, making it the latest tech firm to join the smart mobility race.
Xiaomi, one of the world’s biggest smartphone makers, is in talks to use one of Great Wall’s plants in China to make EVs under its own brand, said two of the people, who declined to be identified as the information is not public.
Xiaomi will aim its EVs at the mass market, in line with the broader positioning of its electronics products, the two people said.
Great Wall, which has not before offered manufacturing services to other companies, will provide engineering consultancy to speed up the project, said one of the people.
Both companies plan to announce the partnership as soon as early next week, said one of the people.
Xiaomi and Great Wall declined to comment.
T
$NVR saw returns on invested capital decline by ~27.4% YoY in 2020. This reduction in ROIC can be explained by an increase of ~30% in current liabilities. It not a deterioration in efficiency, despite the added costs associated with doing business during a pandemic.
Also, $NVR's ~25.37% decline in return on assets is directly attributed to the fact that assets increased ~51.44% YoY in 2020. It's a larger denominator, nothing more.
I maintain a bullish disposition on $NVR. Folks have gotten so worked out about rates and have missed out on the gains in the market, including residential real estate, as a result. The fact is that rates remain low, as do taxes. This is a good environment for domestic equities. $AAPL $AMZN $NVR are three of my favorites.
For how long Unlimited Dollar Printing and artificial Stock Price PUMPING Festival will last? Is this Fraudulent US Stock Market sustainable? $1 worth stocks are trading at $100. The US companies are trading 500-600% higher valuations with 70-80% Lower revenues compared to last year... $AAPL $JPM $TSLA
Bernie Sanders says he'll introduce legislation to hike corporate tax rate to 35% from 21% saying the increase will go towards paying for the new infrastructure package
$SPY $QQQ $AAPL $TSLA
C
Coinbase is like snow- great company horrible stock to buy, valuation matters $snow $qqq $aapl
Bank of America issued a warning note on March 1 as yields climbed to 1.614%. Today the SELL signal was triggered after the 10 year hit 1.75% meaning they recommend a rotation from overvalued stocks into bonds.... Rising Treasury yields and elevated valuations also suggest stocks are poised to decline, the team said. While yields have declined from a peak of 1.614% last week, a climb to 1.75% would mark a "tipping point" for asset allocators to shift cash from stocks to bonds. And stocks' stretched price-to-earnings multiples indicate below-average annualized returns of 5% according to Bank of America.
The gauge stands near its highest point in a decade and is 1.1 points from issuing a "sell" warning.
$SPY $RUA $QQQ $AAPL Such a signal was last given was in June 2007. Stock returns averaged negative 13% on an annualized basis in the years after the "sell" threshold was last crossed, the strategists said in a note.
$AAPL $GOOG $WIMI Spatial, an AR/VR collaboration platform, has announced a major update to its platform to better enable enterprises to work post-COVID-19.
According to Spatial, customers of its platform spend hundreds of hours a day collaborating in its virtual environment, including planning and strategy sessions, model review sessions, social gatherings, events, virtual playbooks, collaboration on undergraduate projects, and COVID-19 response teams.
"Spatial has recently launched its native mobile application, which allows users to join the platform from mobile devices and headsets, and is free to download on iOS and Android."
Looking at historical p/e’s of s&p and many other big tech stocks, ie $AAPL, $MSFT just as a couple of examples. Who here knows how much these stocks would have to drop in order to reach their historical averages?? Here’s a hint. Apple is expected to have 4.46 EPS this year. Their average surprise beat is around 15-20%. With a 20% yearly beat, Apple would have an EPS of about 5.35. At 16 p/e that would give them a price of about 85$/share (35+% drop). The only big news they announced are that they are joining the EV game. That is all speculation and does not mean that their business in that space will fail or not be profitable, just like their business in the server space. Then looking at $MSFT. Their expected EPS for this year is 7.4. Let’s say they beat earnings in 2021 by 25% each quarter (their biggest beat was by 23% last year), that would give them an EPS of 9.25. At the historical average of 16 p/e, that would represent an share price of about 148$, representing an over 40% decline! And those are the biggest tech stocks, so you can make a guess as to how much further $QQQ has to fall to reach historical averages.
The above, I also based on FORWARD p/e’s. The whole s/p is insanely overvalued and what happened last year and happening this year is going to lead new investor in believing this is the norm. The norm is that p/e and p/s rations WILL matter and there is not enough growth from the biggest names to support the p/e’ and p/s ratios they currently hold.
Then to add to that, you have corporate tax hikes coming and interest rates which will undoubtedly go up as the economy is recovering (best unemployment news since before the pandemic yesterday). The dollar will go back up as the economy recovers and unemployment continues to drop. And if inflation does indeed continue to rise, the rates will certainly offset that.
There isn’t much more upside and plenty of downside! As a retail invested I would sell into the strength and be patiently waiting into another major market pull back.
$sqqq $tqqq $qqq
"What's really bothering me right now is the Fed's inability to wean off of $120 billion a month in purchases - $80 billion in treasuries and $40 billion in mortgage-backed securities. What are we so afraid of? How dangerous is it right now that you can't even start to even indicate that you're going to stop that? You look at our debt approaching $30 trillion, and we're trying to put together an infrastructure bill that needs funding, and you're going to have higher taxes. Somewhere along the line, we're going to pay the piper for all this stuff we're doing."
"It's scary, because every time we've seen the Fed try to pull back, even indicate anything, we've seen rates move higher, which widens credit spreads, which sends stocks lower, and then there's backtracking. 'No, no, we're kidding. We didn't mean that.'"
MSFT
3/30/2021 close: $231.85
4/9/2021 close: $255.85
Gain is approximately 10.35%
=====
AMZN
3/30/2021 close: $3055.29
4/9/2021 close: $3372.2
Gain is approximately 10.37%
=====
AAPL
3/30/2021 close: $119.9
4/9/2021 close: $132.99
Gain is approximately 10.92%
So, as you can see, despite a terrific positive news, the stock of $MSFT has still performed about the same as its tech peers / competitors.
This is NOT a commentary on Microsoft, which I find to be a solid company growing at a rapid pace, but on its stock price, which NEVER seems to catch up to its fundamentals and future potential. This is why I remain unimpressed with the STOCK.
NOT an issue with Microsoft (which is a solid company with strong fundamentals), but quite an underwhelming performance of its stock price.
Revenue +18.88%
Free-cash-flow +46.66%
Price to Free-cash-flow +62.60%
Net Income +19.90%
EBITDA +8.39%
Profit Margin +.86%
Return on Assets +32.43%
Debt-to-Equity +76.18%
Net cash deployed on buybacks +60.30%
Shares outstanding -15.1%
Half my portfolio down 6% today.
Its same ole bubble caps propping up indices and looks like market in small and mid caps let alone other names. Looks like tons of sectors being firesold by the fed yes i think the fed and pds held these names- same fed who are now using that money to hide the damage $aapl $msft $amzn $viac very very scary market to see mid caps evwrywhere collapse and people pretending hiding in 40 pe apple or amzn is healthy
I am comforted with Tesla than with Apple stock.
HONG KONG (REUTERS) - China’s Xiaomi Corp plans to make electric vehicles (EVs) using Great Wall Motor’s factory, said three people with direct knowledge of the matter, making it the latest tech firm to join the smart mobility race.
Xiaomi, one of the world’s biggest smartphone makers, is in talks to use one of Great Wall’s plants in China to make EVs under its own brand, said two of the people, who declined to be identified as the information is not public.
Xiaomi will aim its EVs at the mass market, in line with the broader positioning of its electronics products, the two people said.
Great Wall, which has not before offered manufacturing services to other companies, will provide engineering consultancy to speed up the project, said one of the people.
Both companies plan to announce the partnership as soon as early next week, said one of the people.
Xiaomi and Great Wall declined to comment.
Also, $NVR's ~25.37% decline in return on assets is directly attributed to the fact that assets increased ~51.44% YoY in 2020. It's a larger denominator, nothing more.
I maintain a bullish disposition on $NVR. Folks have gotten so worked out about rates and have missed out on the gains in the market, including residential real estate, as a result. The fact is that rates remain low, as do taxes. This is a good environment for domestic equities. $AAPL $AMZN $NVR are three of my favorites.
$nio, $aapl, $pltr and $bac
$AAPL $TSLA $SQM
Is this Fraudulent US Stock Market sustainable?
$1 worth stocks are trading at $100. The US companies are trading 500-600% higher valuations with 70-80% Lower revenues compared to last year...
$AAPL $JPM $TSLA
$SPY $QQQ $AAPL $TSLA
Rising Treasury yields and elevated valuations also suggest stocks are poised to decline, the team said. While yields have declined from a peak of 1.614% last week, a climb to 1.75% would mark a "tipping point" for asset allocators to shift cash from stocks to bonds. And stocks' stretched price-to-earnings multiples indicate below-average annualized returns of 5% according to Bank of America.
The gauge stands near its highest point in a decade and is 1.1 points from issuing a "sell" warning.
$SPY $RUA $QQQ $AAPL
Such a signal was last given was in June 2007. Stock returns averaged negative 13% on an annualized basis in the years after the "sell" threshold was last crossed, the strategists said in a note.
According to Spatial, customers of its platform spend hundreds of hours a day collaborating in its virtual environment, including planning and strategy sessions, model review sessions, social gatherings, events, virtual playbooks, collaboration on undergraduate projects, and COVID-19 response teams.
"Spatial has recently launched its native mobile application, which allows users to join the platform from mobile devices and headsets, and is free to download on iOS and Android."