Q1 2024 QCR Holdings Inc Earnings Call

Participants

Larry Helling; Chief Executive Officer, Director; QCR Holdings Inc

Todd Gipple; President, Chief Financial Officer, Director; QCR Holdings Inc

Nathan Race; Analyst; Piper Sandler Companies

Damon DelMonte; Analyst; Keefe, Bruyette & Woods North America

Jeffrey Rulis; Analyst; D.A. Davidson & Company

Daniel Tamayo; Analyst; Raymond James

Brian Martin; Analyst; Janney Montgomery Scott

Presentation

Operator

Greetings, and welcome to the QCR Holdings, Inc. earnings conference call for the first-quarter of 2024. Yesterday after market closed, the company distributed its first quarter earnings press release if there is anyone on the call who has not received a copy, you may access it on the Company's website at w. w. w. dot QCRH. dot com. With us today from management are Larry Helen, CEO, and Todd Gibbons, President and CFO. Management will provide a summary of the financial results, and then we'll open the call to questions. from analysts.
Before we begin, I would like to remind everyone that some of the information management will be providing today falls under the guidelines of forward-looking statements as defined by the Securities and Exchange Commission. As part of these guidelines. Any statements made during this call concerning the company's hopes, beliefs, expectations and predictions of future and forward looking statements and actual results could differ differ materially from those projected. Additional information on these factors is included in the Company's SEC filings, which are available on the company's website. Additionally, management may refer to non-GAAP measures which are intended to supplement but not substitute for the most directly comparable GAAP measures. The press release available on the company's website contains the financial and other quantitative information to be discussed today as well as the reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP measures. And lastly, as a reminder, this conference is being recorded and will be available for replay through May first 2024 starting this afternoon. Approximately one hour after the completion of this call will also be accessible on the company's website, and I will now turn the call over to Mr. Larry healing at QCR Holdings.

Larry Helling

Thank you, operator. Welcome, everyone, and thanks for joining us today. I'll begin by providing some highlights for the quarter, followed by a discussion on our strategic priorities. Todd will then follow with additional details regarding our financial results for the quarter, we delivered strong first quarter results, highlighted by significant fee income and continued growth in both our core deposit and loan balances. In addition, we continued to benefit from well-managed expenses improved upon our already excellent asset quality and further strengthened our capital ratios in the first quarter we produced adjusted net income of $26.9 million or $1.59 per diluted share. We generated an ROA a of 1.25% and an ROAE. of 11.83% for the quarter and believe that both metrics remain near the high end of our peer group, we grew total loans, 6.4% on an annualized basis during the quarter, driven primarily by our low-income housing tax credit lending program. We also grew core deposits significantly, increasing them by $316 million or 20.3% on an annualized basis, adding to our strong and diversified deposit franchise. As a result, our loans held for investment to deposit ratio improved 93.6%. The exceptional deposit growth achieved during the first quarter was driven by growth in our correspondent bank deposits. Our success in growing deposits underscores our commitment to expanding our market share with existing clients and establishing new relationships within the communities we serve.
Our asset quality remains excellent as the ratio of nonperforming assets to total assets improved by four basis points during the first quarter and remains below our historical average levels at 36 basis points. Our reserve for credit losses represents 1.33% of total loans and leases held for investment and continues to be near the high end of our peer group. We remain disciplined in our underwriting, maintain prudent reserves and diligently monitor asset quality across all business lines. We also continued to see positive trends this quarter in our total criticized and classified loans as a percentage of total loans and leases. We are cautiously optimistic and the economic resilience of our markets and the financial health of our clients. We are not seeing any meaningful signs of weakness across our footprint. Our exposure to commercial office buildings is minimal and well controlled, constituting just 3% of total loans with average loan size of $859,000. These properties are primarily situated in suburban locations either within or adjacent to our markets. Importantly, they are well-collateralized and performing in line with expectations, and we have no significant repayments concerns. In addition, our construction and land development portfolio is performing well. Balances in this sector declined 19% from the prior quarter as projects reached completion and transferred into permanent finance. The majority of our construction and land development loans consist of financing on high-quality low-income housing tax credit projects. Lightech lending program has been instrumental in creating affordable housing units and has been a significant strategic initiative for our company over recent years. We consider this to be the best asset class in our loan portfolio. The entire Lightech industry enjoys an outstanding historical track record and solid underpinnings in recent years, we've navigated a challenging construction period, overcoming pandemic related difficulties, supply chain disruptions and inflationary pressures, given the superior quality of the Lightech construction portfolio. And despite the headwinds, we have had negligible credit issues from this sector of our business. We maintained disciplined underwriting and vigilant credit administration. It also underscores the strength of our risk management practices and commitment to prudent lending. Our remaining CRE portfolio is performing well. And with clients, we trust and end markets that we know and understand our capital levels remain strong and we believe that our modest dividend and solid earnings will enable us to continue to grow capital faster than our peers.
As we delve into our strategic priorities for 2024 and beyond, it's essential to highlight our 9.65 strategy. We crafted this long-term initiative in 2019 with the purpose of driving our financial results to enhance shareholder value, we have delivered on those goals and our overall financial performance has been exceptional. Over the last three years. Core diluted earnings per share has grown at a compounded annual rate of 21% and tangible book value per share by 11% per year. Our adjusted ROA was 1.41% in 2023, up 28 basis points over the three year period. And near the top quartile of our peer group. Our priority is to sustain this outstanding financial performance. We will achieve this by retaining the core of our nine six five strategy we remain committed to delivering top-tier financial performance across several key metrics, including earnings per share, tangible book value per share growth, ROA., and continuing to increase our capital ratios Additionally, we plan to fund future loan growth through core deposit growth and ongoing securitizations. Our qualitative goals encompass enhancing employee and client experiences by investing in best-in-class technology for greater efficiency and continuing to invest in and support the communities in which we operate.
In summary, we believe that our commitment to sustain top-tier financial performance will enhance shareholder value in the long run.
I will now turn the call over to Todd to provide further detail regarding our first quarter results.

Todd Gipple

Thank you, Larry.
Good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us today. I'll start my comments with details on our balance sheet performance during the quarter. As Larry mentioned, our total loans grew 6.4% on an annualized basis during the quarter or $105 million of net growth in anticipation of our next loan securitization. We have designated $275 million of Lightech loans as held for sale at the end of the quarter. As we have previously discussed, our long-term securitization strategy allows us to sustain the strong performance of our Lightech lending business. In addition, this will continue to drive the corresponding capital markets revenue that we earn from this business, all while ensuring our portfolio remains within our established concentration levels.
Core deposits increased $316 million during the quarter or just over 20% on an annualized basis. As Larry mentioned, growing our core deposits remains a top priority. This strategic focus enables us to sustain our future loan growth while reducing reliance on wholesale or higher-cost funding.
During the first quarter, our exceptional deposit growth facilitated a combined reduction of $252 million in overnight borrowings and brokered deposits. Our total uninsured and uncollateralized deposits remained very low at 20% of total deposits. In addition, the Company maintained approximately 3.2 billion of available liquidity sources at quarter end, which includes $1.3 billion of immediately available liquidity.
Now turning to our income statement. We delivered net income of $26.7 million or $1.68 per diluted share. For the quarter, our adjusted net income was $26.9 million, or $1.59 per diluted share. Net interest income for the first quarter of 2024 totaled $54.7 million, a decrease of $1 million from the fourth quarter of 2023. This decrease was influenced by several non-client factors, including the maturity of $125 million of interest rate caps on our index deposits and the conversion of $65 million of our subordinated debt to a higher floating rate, which contributed a combined $1.3 million of additional interest. But we also had lower loan discount accretion by 310,000, and there was one less day in the quarter, which had an impact of approximately 600,000 decrease in net interest income. However, the Company's net interest income driven by core activity saw growth of approximately $1.2 million during the first quarter, led by continued expansion in loan and investment yields. Our adjusted NIM on a tax-equivalent basis declined by five basis points from the fourth quarter of 2023 and was at the low end of our guidance range. The decrease was driven primarily by a combination of non-client factors including the expiration of interest rate caps and the repricing of a portion of our subordinated debt, which collectively contributed seven basis points of NIM dilution. However, we were able to partially offset this nine client impact with core NIM expansion of two basis points. Notably, our core NIM expansion was less than expected due to additional shifts in our deposit composition. Specifically, our noninterest-bearing deposit portfolio has experienced a net decline over the past year as our commercial clients use more cash for operations and are investing excess cash and interest-bearing deposits.
Looking ahead, we continue to use the forward yield curve as the baseline for our interest rate assumptions, which no longer includes any rate cuts for the second quarter, the inverted yield curve continues to pressure our NAM. However, we did not have any new non-client headwinds in the second quarter. Therefore, assuming a static funding mix, we anticipate that our expansion in loan and investment yields will generally offset any further increase in our funding costs, leading to growth in net interest income. As a result, we are reaffirming our guidance for a relatively static adjusted NIMTEY. in the second quarter of 2024 with a range of five basis points of expansion on the high end and five basis points of compression on the low end, we continue to be well positioned for rates down scenario. In the past year, our balance sheet has shifted from asset-sensitive to firmly liability-sensitive. This shift is primarily due to changes in our funding mix to more higher beta funding.
Turning to our noninterest income of $26.9 million for the first quarter, which was down from our record $47.7 million in the fourth quarter of 2023. Our capital markets revenue was $16.5 million in the quarter as our Lightech lending and revenue from swap fees continues to benefit from the strong demand for affordable housing. Our pipeline in this business remains healthy and therefore, we are reaffirming our Capital Markets.
Revenue guidance for the next 12 months to be in a range of $50 million to $60 million. We generated $4.3 million of wealth management revenue in the first quarter, up 16% on an annualized basis from the fourth quarter.
In addition to the expansion of our wealth management business and our Guaranty Bank charter in 2023, we are pleased to announce the recent launch of our wealth management business in the attractive Des Moines, Iowa metropolitan market at our community state bank charter. We have a highly experienced team in place and anticipate further growth of our already successful wealth management business model.
Now turning to our expenses, noninterest expense for the first quarter totaled $50.7 million compared to $60.9 million for the fourth quarter. The linked quarter decrease was primarily due to lower variable employee compensation related to our record fourth quarter and full year performance in 2023. As we look ahead to the second quarter, we expect our noninterest expenses to continue to be in the range of $49 million to $52 million. Our ongoing focus is on effective management of recurring noninterest expenses. And we continue to benefit from our investments in technology and creating a best-in-class group operations team that supports our multi charter community banking model.
Now shifting to asset quality, which continues to be excellent. During the quarter, NPAs declined by $3 million to $31 million or 36 basis points of total assets. The provision for credit losses was $3 million during the quarter and our allowance for credit losses to total loans held for investment was static quarter over quarter at 1.33% net charge-offs were also steady to the fourth quarter and remain at historical lows at just five basis points of average loans and leases. Our tangible common equity to tangible assets ratio increased by 19 basis points to 8.94% at quarter end, up from 8.75% at the end of December. The first quarter improvement in our TCE ratio was primarily driven by our strong earnings and was only partially offset by a $5.4 million decrease in AOCI. Our total risk-based capital ratio was 14.30% at quarter end. And our common equity Tier one ratio was 9.91%, improving by one basis point and 24 basis points respectively. On a linked quarter basis, the improvement in both capital ratios due to strong earnings. We are also pleased to deliver another meaningful increase in our tangible book value per share which grew by $1.12 or just over 10% annualized during the quarter. Finally, our effective tax rate for the quarter was 4% compared to 12% in the prior quarter. The linked quarter decline was due primarily to the sequentially lower capital markets revenue we earned during the quarter, decreasing the mix of our taxable income as compared to our tax exempt income. In addition, we've recognized a stronger tax benefit on our stock-based compensation, which tends to be elevated in the first quarter. We also continue to benefit from our tax-exempt loan and bond portfolios. As a result, this has helped our effective tax rate to remain one of the lowest in our peer group. We continue to expect our effective tax rate to be in a range of 8% to 11% for the full year 2024.
With that added context on our first quarter financial results, let's open the call for your questions. Operator, we are ready for our first question.

Question and Answer Session

Operator

We will now begin the question and answer session. As a reminder, to ask a question, you may press star then one on your touchtone phone. And if you're using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. If you would like to withdraw your question, please press star then two.
At this time, we will take our first question, which will come from Nathan Race with Piper Sandler. Please go ahead.

Nathan Race

Hi, guys. Good morning, Marty.
I wanted to start just in terms of the kind of thinking about the impact of the upcoming Lightech securitizations in terms of when you expect that to occur? And then also just in terms of how we should think about the core margin impact from that. I think from the last securitization had some benefit there to the margin and also trying to think about what kind of offset we can expect in terms of the reduction in earning assets relative to maybe some higher gain on sale revenue?

Todd Gipple

Sure, Nate. I think I'll start to let Larry chime in a little bit with our longer-term strategy on securitizations.
But I would tell you that $275 million securitization, we do expect that to occur in the third quarter, not late here in the second. So for modeling purposes, you can expect that in the third quarter, as we've talked about for us, it's less about ultimate gain or loss on sale of those securitized loans. It's more about the benefit. It gives us in liquidity and therefore core deposit pricing. So we do expect a lift in net interest margin in the third quarter when that securitization is complete, as we've seen in past securitizations, it really does help take the pressure off of funding costs. And we've seen that in the past we actually feel like perhaps that benefit will be a bit more in the third quarter because core deposit pricing really in our markets has eased a bit, and we're starting to see more core deposit generation in the fours versus fives. So combination of that and the $275 million in liquidity we'll get we're very optimistic about that helping us with margin going forward. And then, of course, all the benefits to allowing us to keep that Lightech engine running and the capital markets revenue growing. We're very pleased to have securitization in hand. I know Larry's probably got some comments on and the next securitization and a little more around our strategy in the future.

Larry Helling

Yes, Nate, the of this securitization, the next one that we'll do early in the third quarter is on tax-exempt loans. We'll likely do a smaller one later in the year. That will be that will be taxable loans of likely roughly half the size of this one probably late in the year.
Again, our focus is not we certainly want efficient execution, but this is more about creating capacity for us. And so we learned a lot having done two securitizations. I think we'll need to do several more before we figure out the most efficient ways and the timing in the marketplace and how to package these to get the most efficient execution over time, we'll certainly expect to get some gains on sale. Again, that was never the intent here and it'll probably take us a few more to learn the best way to get there more efficient with that. So and then future securitizations, that's something we would expect to do on an ongoing basis annually or semiannually. And it will depend the timing of that on what our liquidity looks like, other loan demand, all those kinds of things as we go forward. So it's a little hard to tell. But certainly as Todd telegraphed, this first securitization early in the third quarter, likely another smaller one late in the year.

Nathan Race

Okay. Great. Very helpful. And then just going back to Todd's point in terms of deposit cost pressures on see a decline in noninterest deposits in the quarter. I'm curious in terms of the driver there and just in terms of what you saw in terms of the degree of deposit cost increases over the quarter and in terms of if you're seeing continued slowdown and that pressure certainly Thanks for very questions around that, Tom.

Todd Gipple

First, I'm going to talk about noninterest bearing.
We did see that a $79 million reduction in non-interest bearing that really cost us about five basis points of margin this past quarter. We are monitoring and I've been very, very closely in all locations, and I'm pleased to say that so far this quarter were down only about $5 million in terms of average. So that that stress seems to have abated a bit here in the second quarter in terms of interest-bearing deposit costs, if you look at our new table that went up, interest-bearing deposits went up 18 bps, but really eight basis points of that was the expiration of those cap. So really more than 10 basis points in terms of nonsense that a or really core margin impact and that 10 basis points is slowing from prior quarters. What I will tell you is we're very excited about the fact that we are starting to reprice CDs and bring on new money in the fours versus the fives. We actually have CD rates somewhere between four 35 and four, 74 at our four charters for new money and we're getting some traction at those pricing levels were very pleased to see a little bit of the competition for deposits abating think that has a lot to do with the fact that many of our peers are not growing, not growing loans, not growing relationships. And so some of them, it has been taken off of deposit pricing in our market. So another reason we're guiding to a more static name in Q2, for example, we have$340 million of CDs repricing. They have a weighted average rate of 472, and we actually expect to replace them at roughly that rate. So we think we're hitting somewhere near the end of that creep in interest-bearing deposit costs.

Nathan Race

Okay. Super helpful. And if I could just ask last one on charge offs on the last couple of quarters, they're flipping all this year relative to your historical LEVELS. Just curious kind of what the driver was in the first quarter and how you're kind of thinking about charge-off levels or if we could maybe assume that there's some additional normalization going on with charge-offs?

Todd Gipple

Yes, Nate, what I'd say is the charge offs are primarily common in what I'd call our micro business portion of our portfolio and there's no big charge offs in there. It's really $100,000 average kind of charge-offs and small deals that and I think that's the sector of the economy that's suffered the most from the pandemic and probably didn't have the kind of liquidity that a little bit larger businesses had. So I'd say, no, there's nothing unusual. These charge-offs are still running while below our long-term 20-year historical averages. But I kind of expect them to stabilize and slowly move down here later this year based on what we're seeing today, I've had conversations with our Chief Credit Officer in the last couple of days ago, are you seeing anything and see that mean there's just no movement from our clients' portfolio. If we look at our businesses. They're being successful. Generally, there's like normal little spots here and there of management issues that create problems. And then I talk to our appraisal review people yesterday and what you're seeing on valuations and cap rates. And the answer is not really don't real estate values are holding up in the strange thing going on in the real estate market that the last recession was all about a housing for housing is holding up amazingly well in our markets really because of shortage of supply, which means existing inventory is very marketable and I think that holds on the commercial side of things, too. But new construction is more expensive because the inflation and the higher interest rates. So existing properties have value, and that's really well, that's a big chunk of our collateral that's helped us avoid significant charge-offs.

Nathan Race

Okay, great.

Larry Helling

Okay. Thanks, Nate.

Operator

Our next question will come from Damon DelMonte with KBW. Please go ahead.

Damon DelMonte

Morning, Dan. Sorry about that. I can kind of figure out how to unmute myself.
Good morning.
Help you guys are doing well on first excuse me. First question, just with regards to loan growth. I think last quarter, Larry, you had said kind of going into the year, you thought 46% growth ex the securitization and kind of 8% to 10% without it on sorry, 46 with the eight to 10 went without it on. Is that has that guidance changed at all? Or do you still feel that confident for that kind of growth?

Larry Helling

Yes, we do still feel confident that those the right numbers quarter to date, we're off to a really good start in the first three weeks of the quarter here. So more in line with that eight to 10, I think the slightly lower loan demand in the first quarter and just kind of seasonality, things that sometimes happens over the end of the year. So we certainly feel at this point that that guidance is still solid.

Damon DelMonte

Okay.
And the loans that you added this quarter and last quarter or this year so far, what what are some of the others the rates you guys are getting on new production?

Larry Helling

Yes, they are inherently dependent, almost. Yes, it really depends on us for that type of new loan pricing was up seven 64 for the quarter. Damon roll off of seven 18, so 46 basis point lift there. And that blended seven 64 also has a fair amount of floating. It had a 24 in it for the quarter. So the seven 64 continues to grow. We're optimistic about that. Getting closer and closer to an 8% handle on a on a blended.

Damon DelMonte

Got it. Okay.

Todd Gipple

That's helpful.

Damon DelMonte

And then with regards to the margin in the US, the impact you had this quarter for me, the interest rate caps expiring on, do you see that moving higher in being more of a headwind in the upcoming quarter or is it kind of fully been absorbed into the margin it had, Damon, it's really cooked into Q2 now that that did cost us 1.1 million in additional interest expense and six basis points of margin, but that's for the most part, fully baked into the run rate now.

Todd Gipple

So we don't expect any further drag from that.
The $65 million in sub debt that did reprice went from a five 38 to a floating of eight 12. That cost us 200 k. and one basis point in first quarter that will lift to a full run rate of 400 k. per quarter and two basis points in Q2. So just that additional one basis point of drag there, as we said early in our and prepared opening comments, we expect to be over able to overpower that with core margin.

Larry Helling

Got it. And then just lastly on the provision on credit has been pretty strong. The reserves stayed flat at one 33. You kind of tried to keep that level. And based on the recent net charge-off history kind of use that as a data points to back into a provision? Is that a reasonable way to look at it?
Yes, Damon, I think that's a good estimation.
There's certainly some science and some art in loan loss reserve.
We've tried to be conservative and keeping that number high, but I think your parameters are in line.

Damon DelMonte

Great. Okay. That's all I had.
Thank you, Sam, and thanks, Cole.

Operator

And our next question will come from Jeff Rulis with D.A. Davidson. Please go ahead.

Jeffrey Rulis

Good morning, R-N.J. and sorry to circle back to the margin. I just want to make sure I got this right. If the tax equivalent was 25 and it's not as if those non-client factors go away, that's that's the your guide for plus or minus five basis points hugs the three, 25. It's not as if it's and have a around at three 30 with the elimination of the nonclient and headwinds.

Larry Helling

Yes, Jeff, thanks for the clarifying question on our guide to static. Is that the three 25 through 24 on a tax equivalent NIM., that's the number we're putting in on in terms of static gas.

Jeffrey Rulis

Okay. Appreciate it.
And maybe just on the fee income, obviously, capital markets gets kind of the fanfare, but that wealth management piece is growing nicely. And I think you talked about is the rollout in Des Moines, maybe the outlook there and where you're seeing kind of the wins, it's kind of a little further outlook. Seems like a nice a nicely growing business that, Jeff, thanks.

Larry Helling

Thanks for asking more about wealth management. It is a great business for us. We're very excited to having had that started last year in Southwest Missouri at Guaranty Bank and getting started here this spring in Des Moines, Des Moines, great Metro for wealth management. We're excited to have hired two very experienced folks to lead that effort in the mine. The good news about this business for us is we can leverage off our infrastructure in the Quad Cities market that really provides the US shared services around that business. So when we stand that up in Springfield or Des Moines, we don't have to put a whole lot of operational folks, whether it's really client-facing folks. So I appreciate you asking we're very excited about this business. Aum was up 11% for the quarter. So we're thrilled with that. We actually brought in 136 new clients in the quarter and 413 of the new AUM crossed all four of the bank charter. So this is a very good business for us. If you think about it as Larry said in his opening comments, nine six, five for us, we really expect this business to continue to grow at a better than 6% clip organically. And it's the ultimate relationship business and we think we do it well, and we like it very much.

Damon DelMonte

Is the just thinking about the timing of the mine? What did you see a considerable as you rolled out in Southwest Missouri there of kind of company-wide, but are there some artificial jumps that you've taken because it really impactful and the new rollout areas of it trying to get into that, you're talking about 6% growth rate, but there's some leg up says you get good morning rolled out.

Larry Helling

Yes, we certainly expect some of the added lift to come from Des Moines and <unk> Springfield, Southwest Missouri. But what I'll tell you is of the 400 and some new AUM, 350 of it came in Quad Cities in our longest tenured market and 84 new relationship. So it is a bit of a momentum business. Once you get that momentum going, you get on all the right radar screens for the right centers of influence in the markets at the right time, attorneys and other relationships, you can build some really good momentum. So we expect to keep growing in Quad Cities and Cedar Rapids. Both of those really, really good wealth management teams, really deep client base in both Cedar Rapids and Quad Cities. And we're just excited about building that over time at Guaranty Bank and CSB, one thing I'd mention is because of our model, it's only going to take us about 125 to 200 million in AUM in each market to really breakeven. So it's not a big lift in terms of those revenue producers that we've added, we get to breakeven pretty quickly.

Damon DelMonte

Great.
And last one for Larry. Just checking in on the M&A landscape and how you're feeling you've got what you can eat on plate organically, but just thinking about combinations in those conversations got it on the M&A front?

Larry Helling

Yes.

Damon DelMonte

Thanks, Jeff.

Larry Helling

Not a big priority for us now. We certainly have some longer-term potential partners that we think might make some sense. But again, our focus is on managing our current business as effectively as we can because we think that's going to give us in the short run the best return for our shareholders and until the whole sector gets a little better valuations. A lot of the M&A doesn't make a lot of sense right now.

Jeffrey Rulis

If I were to kind of think about the growth rate organically that you've got in F M & A's, the other cooling and the what are the priorities beyond reinvestment in terms of either the dividend or or buyback?

Larry Helling

Yes, our first priority is building a really strong balance sheet, given the I'll call it, the world economic uncertainty that could be caused by all kinds of, as you know, to watch the news the crazy events going on in the world. So our focus initially is to grow our capital ratios a bit more yet.
Our TTE. is approaching nine.
We'd like to get into the low nines here, which should be kind of top quartile in our peer group. We think that's the prime the kind of prudent place to be after that it would be general stock buybacks. When we get to that relative capital levels, we might get a little more active there. Dividends is down the list after that.

Todd Gipple

And then M&A Appreciate it.

Jeffrey Rulis

Thank you.

Operator

And our next question will come from Daniel Tamayo with Raymond James. Please go ahead.

Daniel Tamayo

Thank you.
Good morning, everyone for today. Yes, first, just curious on the expense impact of the swaps. So I'm assuming your expense guidance for 49, $52 million in the second quarter is aligned with the 50 to 60 million of swaps if the swaps end up kind of higher higher end of that range toward the 60 million number, what kind of impact would that have on the on the expense guidance?

Todd Gipple

Danny, thanks for the question.

Daniel Tamayo

On the upper end of the guidance range would still put us within that ballpark range for noninterest expense. So we would not expect even if we're at the higher end of the run rate to be outside of that $52 million. So we'd still be within that strike zone.

Todd Gipple

Okay.

Jeffrey Rulis

All right.

Todd Gipple

Thanks, Todd.

Daniel Tamayo

And then I guess just just to reiterate on the caps, I think you said it, but I'm not sure how far out in terms of the interest rate caps, you said there's nothing in the second quarter. But if we did it stay in this higher for longer environment, is there anything kind of back half of the year or even into next year that that would come into play.

Todd Gipple

And then a great question.

Larry Helling

So so really not anything else synthetic during 2024 on the the caps have expired. So so that's over with it's baked into our run rate.
Now on the repricing on the existing sub-debt, the 65 million that's happened now and so that that reprices three months with sulfur. So So for right now, five 30 is going to control that floating rate that's already baked into the run rate. Now we really don't have anything else synthetically in 24 other than if we choose to do something, but nothing baked into our derivatives right now. But in 25, we will have another 20 million tranche of sub debt repricing in July. So that will go from a fixed rate of five and a quarter to a floating rate that will be quite high, actually a little over 10% that's mid year next year. And then core out into the third quarter of next year, we have another $50 million tranche of sub-debt that would reprice very similar current rate and future rate. So obviously, given those new rates, we'd probably be looking to take advantage of the marketplace. Maybe I reprice those, but that's well down the road.

Todd Gipple

So nothing in 24.
Got it.

Daniel Tamayo

Thanks for going into 25 with that detail, Todd, that's helpful. And then I guess just lastly on the NIM on the impact from rate cuts this year, as you think about it just curious where balance sheet stands now.

Larry Helling

I don't would you then if you've seen that again and kind of just percent of the impact of rate cuts?

Daniel Tamayo

Yes.

Larry Helling

Sorry, I lost your?
Yes.

Daniel Tamayo

The question was just around the impact of rate cuts.

Larry Helling

Yes. Well, certainly, we think we would benefit in breakdowns happened, certainly. But the world sentiment in that space has changed a lot in the last 30 days, which the contrarian and we believe maybe make that actually more likely that that actually could happen here. So I think we're reasonably well positioned, we think we can navigate higher for longer. We're also well-positioned and we've picked up some seasonal margin. Yes, if rates do go down.

Daniel Tamayo

Okay. All right. Thanks for taking my questions.

Larry Helling

Thanks, Dan.

Operator

And our next question will come from Brian Martin of Janney. Please go ahead.

Brian Martin

Good morning, guys.
Morning, Brian and Pete.
Just one question, just with the strong deposit growth this quarter tied or Larry, just as far as kind of you talked about a lot about the loan growth and kind of managing that business as far as where you see the deposit flows in just trying to manage that loan to deposit ratio kind of can we expect them to kind of outpace loan growth or I guess how you're thinking about that, especially given the pricing appears to be a little bit better here?

Todd Gipple

Yes, Blake.

Larry Helling

Yes, certainly overtime, Brian, we'd still like to move the loan to deposit ratio down a little bit more. We're not trying to do it aggressively. We made really good progress during this quarter. We probably want that number in the next year or two down in the 90% loan-to-deposit ratio range. And the yes, the interesting thing is in spite of rates staying at in higher local market, competition has softened, I think because the banks are running more liquid and liquidity concerns of a year ago have kind of become a memory and everybody's kind of comfortable with their new set of liquidity with less loan demand that started impact other people's perception of bidding up deposits. So I saw a medium seven-figure deposits that went out to the market, a bid from a municipality in our market to get price some some five here in the last week or so.
And that's one of the market, everybody, the where we have a chance to buy.
So I believe that that's going to help us as we go forward.

Todd Gipple

Got you.

Brian Martin

Okay. So longer term target, kind of that 90% level is what you'd be eyeing as you move forward?

Larry Helling

Yes, yes.

Brian Martin

Okay. And then just on the just the buyback for a moment, just because your conversations on M&A on our own that's percolating sounds like for the year, given you're going to be at that 9% level relatively quickly, I guess, is it something you could think about the share repurchases in the back half of the year? And just kind of the maybe the kind of the change in rate outlook here kind of higher for longer with some incremental credit concerns. Is that something that weighs on your potential share repurchase activity as you kind of look in the second half of the year?

Larry Helling

Yes, I think it is possible in the second half of the year. If things if the environment kind of looks like it does today. I think that's probably be appropriate because you're right, we did into the nines here turn on TCE. fairly quickly here given expected continued good earnings and the securitization that we're doing on and all those things give us some capacity. So yes, back half of the year, I think we'll have the capacity to do it, but it will certainly depend on how we feel about the environment from an economic standpoint. And again, there's really nothing showing up in the portfolio today that gives us cause it doesn't mean that will be the same way six months from now. But certainly today, if that variables all come in the same, that's certainly possible.

Todd Gipple

Got you.

Brian Martin

Okay.
And then maybe just one one for Todd, just on the on the margin side, I know you talked about the securitization maybe giving a little bit of benefit to the margin. Can you talk, I guess, can you just remind us in terms of, you know, how much impact you saw from the recent securitization. So maybe just if that parallels that what you think may occur in that one in September here, the first and third quarter.

Larry Helling

Sure, Brian, I think last time we got about a three basis point margin lift from the securitization. Previously, I would expect something like that, it again will depend on how quickly we're able to take advantage of that liquidity and driving down cost of funding. But we're optimistic about that. Again, it literally gave you a data point on some some money bid money with a four handle now versus a five. So three basis points might be a good place to start and we'll likely have some more guidance for all of you on that in July when we talk about Q2.
Okay.

Brian Martin

And then just one more housekeeping kind of small, just on the on the you talked about the accretion a bit earlier being a little bit down this quarter, just that ebbs and flows a little bit, but kind of in that general ZIP Code is kind of where may shake out here in the coming quarters?
Yes, Brian, that zip code is a accurate way to put it. It was 350 some million in Q. one and the scheduled run rate is around that 300 mark for the rest of this year, 300 per quarter. So very, very consistent.

Todd Gipple

Got it.

Brian Martin

Okay, perfect. That's all I had. Thanks for taking the questions. Thanks, Bruce.

Larry Helling

Thanks, Brent.

Operator

In this concludes our question and answer session. I would now like to turn the call back over to Mr. Larry, Helen, for any closing remarks.

Larry Helling

I would like to thank all of you for joining our call today. We appreciate your interest in our company. Have a great day, and we look forward to connecting with you in the coming weeks.

Operator

Thanks. The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines.